Ah. Breeder's Cup Saturday. Every horse with an opportunity to be a legend. Every gambler with an opportunity to pick that horse and be a legend. For every Sunday Silence there's a guy who made a million bucks on a two dollar Arcangues bet. Maybe this year its me.
Lets begin the day with the
Juvenile Fillies:
The card used to open with the Distaff, which I never understood. I'm glad they've made the change. This is a heck of a field with 4 undefeated horses, 3 Grade 1 winners, and 6 Graded states winners. With the scratch of Cry and Catch Me I'm going to go with Bob Baffert's other filly Indian Blessing. 2 for 2 at the track the Blessing is obviously still green but she's shown class already winning the Grade 1 Frizette and I like her to stretch out with relative ease. Plus, shes a front runner which bodes well in light of the monsoon sitting on top of New Jersey as we speak. I like the closer Irish Smoke to show up late and Ron McAnally's Izarra to make it interesting in 3rd. Great field though, it could be anybody's race.
In light of that I'm going with:
$1 exacta box with the 4,5, and 8
Total Weekend Cost: $24
Off to the window to collect and then we go to the
Juvenile:
The Juvenile is always fun because the winner will be handed the spot of Derby favorite before the next race is run. Who will it be this year? War Pass. Nice to see Nick Zito back in the mix with the game 3 for 3 colt. I would give Wicked Style a better shot but he's all speed and sitting way out in the 13 slot. I like Salute the Sarge to show, and could even do better if the front runners cook themselves with swift fractions. There's a lot of speed in this race so it might actually set up well for the closers.
Still
$5 on both the 12 and 13 to show - I'll get good prices on both
Total: $34
Done with the two year olds and on to the
Filly and Mare Turf:
Hard not to like Precious Kitten. Bobby Frankel is somehow the man on the turf and his filly has a nice resume built up. I like Todd Pletcher's Honey Ryder in second and the 7 for 7 undefeated filly Nashoba's Key to finally find herself bested in third. 6 of the 12 horses in this race are Grade 1 winners to give you an idea of the quality we have here. I'm bad at turf handicapping so I'll let the quality serve as my excuse.
Wait...Precious Kitten is 30-1 on the morning line?
$10 to win on the 12
Total: $44
At this point I should mention that I'm making these selections before checking the morning lines. I know I've taken my share of favorites but 30-1 is ridiculous unless the horse lost a leg in transit and nobody told me. If the horse has 3 legs I reserve the right to change my pick.
With more white paper in my pocket than green I go to the
Sprint:
The Sprint is a breeding ground for upsets in my humble opinion. A lot of good horses have taken one slow step out of the gate or been too far off the rail and that was all she wrote. So naturally I'll take what I can only assume will be the favorite, Midnight Lute. Lute won his last race with an "is this a typo?" Beyer figure of 124. (Street Sense got a 110 for the Derby) If he does it again I'll be astonished but I still like him up front. Second place that day was Benny the Bull and he'll finish third behind Greg's Gold in this one. Still, Greg's Gold has a shot.
$2 exacta box with the 2 and 10
Total: $48
With 4 races to go I'm still under $50, but not after the
Mile:
Huh. I think this is going to be the best opportunity to get a value on the winner, which is a polite way of saying its a toughie to handicap. Yet, here we go. I like After Market followed byTrippi's Storm and Nobiz Like Shobiz. I kind of want to include Cosmonaut but while always in the money he's allergic to winning so I can keep him around. I need winners, not also rans. I hope Nobiz finds a niche here with the milers as he was my Derby favorite before breaking my heart.
Nobiz factors, hopefully at a price
$10 to show on the 9
Total: $58
Side note: This race includes a horse name Silent Name who is out of sire Sunday Silence. (yellow silks above) Sunday Silence stood in Japan and totally dominate Japanese breeding for about 15 years but he progeny rarely made their way back over here. In fact, I cant remember ever seeing one run here. That being said Silent Name wont factor. Sorry Japan.
Hey Ladies, welcome to the
Distaff:
The Classic for the ladies, the Distaff certainly doesn't disappoint this year with a gate stacked full of class. I like Octave, trained by the Atlanta Braves of horse trainers Todd Pletcher. Year after year Pletcher comes through in the standings all to fall short in the one that matters. He finally broke through with Rags to Riches in the Belmont but his record isnt exactly stellar here in the Breeder's Cup. Still, Octave is a multiple Grade 1 stakes winner and should show up to play with Ginger Punch taking the place and Pletcher's pair Unbridled Belle and Indian Vale dead heating for third. Ballsy pick but that's just what I do.
A lot of ladies looking to get my money... stay with me
$2 across the board on the 8, $1 trifecta with the 8-4-10 and another with 8-4-11
Total: $66
Spread the love I say, but not much spread around in the
Turf:
Second lock of the weekend after Discreet Cat is European invader, Arc de Triomphe winner, and all around good guy Dylan Thomas. He's going to win. Second place is English Channel - who my friend Travis informs me has a body of water named after him - followed by Better Talk Now, the old man at 8.
No choice but to beat the British
$2 exacta box with the 3 and 6
Total: $70
And with one race to go I can promise you its going to be a
Classic:
I estimate that the starting gate in the race will probably feature about $250 million worth of horse flesh - and thats just 6 of the 9 horses. My guess is more than half this field will retire after the race. We have Derby winner Street Sense, Preakness winner Curlin, Derby runner up Hard Spun, 3rd place in the Belmont and winner of the Swaps Tiago, Haskell winner and "King of Monmouth Park" Any Given Saturday, and $2.7 million winner Lawyer Ron. Who will win? My third and final lock of the weekend Lawyer Ron. Ron is the old man in the bunch but stands head and shoulders above the others in class. He tore up the Woodward and the Whitney this year in dazzling fashion and I just dont think the others will have anything for him. I think Any Given Saturday will show back up in second and I look for Curlin to run third. Watch for Hard Spun and Ron to set the early fractions with Any Given Saturday and Curlin sitting just off the pace and Tiago and Street Sense looking to swallow up ground late and catch the speed. Its going to be one for the ages. Oh, and there's three more horses but all they'll do is get in the way.
Last bet of the weekend
$10 to win on the 1
Total: $80
There you have it. $80 spent on 11 races. Good luck to you and happy racing.
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