The Sinister Trip Down Bellamy Road

Every year seems to bring the one ridiculous prep race that leaves the horse world salivating (yours truly included) and a promising 3 year old trembling like Pheidippides after a speedy arrival into Marathon. The cant miss. The sure thing. The horse I have to charge extra for at the Derby party to keep the field dispersed amongst the crowd.

Side Note: We do this every year to make sure an equal distribution of horses are picked. Smarty Jones went to all takers for $5, Giacomo was packaged with two other horses for a dollar.

In years gone by we've seen the camera pan out to include the second place runner when Bellamy Road captured the Wood and we saw Sinister Minister devour the field at last year's Blue Grass. Neither horse showed up for the Derby leaving two world class trainers scratching their heads. It can't help but wonder who will dazzle us this year, only to leave us in May.

I can't help but wonder if it's already happened. The Street Sense - Any Given Saturday matchup in the Tampa Bay Derby was nothing short of spectacular and it thrills me the pair will have time to shake off the bounce in another prep before Louisville, though AGS needs the money if he wants to make it at all.

Maybe we'll see the big finisher actually pull it off. War Emblem's romp in the 2002 Illinois Derby was eye opening but this time no one except Andy Beyer expected a repeat performance and it was the betting public left scratching our heads.

Maybe we'll never get to see what could become of the gutsy newcomer like we missed out on Buddha after an inspiring Wood Memorial in 2002.

I cant wait to see what becomes of the Florida trio, Scat Daddy, Stormello, and Adore the Gold who will meet again this weekend in the Florida Derby. Surely all 3 have punched their ticket with Adore the Gold being the only one who needs the money. Florida gave us Barbaro and Monarchos, why not another?

We still have 7 huge races, each assuring the winner of a spot in the field, each with a history of sending contenders onward to greater things. Even if they don't win. Secretariat lost the Wood, so did Monarchos. Funny Cide got beat up and down the Eastern United States and Giacomo didnt win so much as a bingo card where it mattered.

Maybe all that this shows is that a lot of the time it doesnt matter how your prep races go as long as you have a good trainer with a good master plan. That's what makes Derby betting so lucrative and what has finally taught me never to package 3 horses for a dollar.

Rail Bird Figures

What the world needs is one more index figure to confuse the hell out of young horseplayers around the world. Enter the Daily Racing Form with the new Moss Figures. This is, I assume, another calculated index of a horse's race to put his effort in numerical form with which to assess his performance with that of another from another track, another distance, perhaps another time. Horse racing has more index figures and calculations than i could shake a stick at... so I figure the sport needs one more.

I'd like to introduce you to "Rail Bird Figures"

Here's how this works, I'm going to take as much possible information on a horse to come up with a picture of a number, that's right, that encompasses all you need to know about a horse's race.

It starts with a very simple calculation of race put into a numerical form which I have not and will not seek to do. We're going to stay in hypothetical land and I'll just uses the Beyer figure as an example. Let's say a horse runs a good race and comes up with a 100 Beyer. I start with that and then run it through an assembly line of changes starting with:

The color of the number. Lighter color blues indicate that a horse has run better over shorter distances and the blue gets darker through the entire blue spectrum until you get to a horse that only runs well at 2 miles. Mix in green when the horse runs on turf. Of course, a key of some kind will be published on the first page of the form. The color evolves from one race to another so the color of the most recent race indicates where the horse is at that point in his career.

Crappy trainer? We make the number bigger. The number gets smaller the better the trainer's numbers are until you arrive at a tiny font for the likes of Pletcher or Frankle. Maybe it doesnt matter to some but if a see a large 100 go suddenly to a small number trainer I'm going to pay more attention.

The quality of the horse's sire changes the boldness of the number. Storm Cat being the extreme bold while the $500 sire is a very fine line. Also if the sire produces turf runners the number is in italics and if his offspring prefer dirt it is underlined.

If the horse gets a bad trip for whatever reason, stuck on the rail, swung out twelve wide, the number has a line through it.

Did the horse or his connections overcome Bob Costas style adversity? Owner killed the day before, horse was born ugly as hell and no one wanted him, trainer was temporarily blind but now he can see, Auburn John bet on him, horse was blind but now can/can partially see, almost died then nursed back to health as a yearling, ornery as hell but calmed by a best friend who happens to be a cat, generally smellier than most other horses but loved in spite of it, these horses get their numbers circled for their particular odds overcoming race. This prevents us from being forced to hear the soft piano music before every horse's sad tale is unfolded before us, the unsuspecting public. You can stop right there Bob, I already circled it, the people already know.

So if a horse has a crappy trainer, likes medium distances on the dirt, has a good sire whose offspring prefer the turf, a good trip and no Bob Costas adversity his number might look like this. 100

Feel free to offer suggestions or changes, I feel perfection is around the corner.

Much Too Much Of A Hurry

Another semester of law school and I feel a little bit like the White Rabbit getting chased around the library by Alice with another stack of books and briefs to read.

But now I'm on spring break for the time since Smarty Jones was a prosmising colt in Arkansas. I havent had one this slow since Elian Gonzalez was on a raft.

I've missed a lot since the last post so I'll try to play some catch up.

I'm getting on and off bandwagons at such an alarming rate that I'm now asking the steadfast to hold my seat until I get back. I'm still on the following: (its a hell of a balancing act)

Nobiz Like Shobiz - He could stop at the quarter pole and have a sandwich in his next race and I'm still going to love the colt for being the first to get Albert the Great in the spotlight. In my eyes his third in the Fountain of Youth wasnt bad enough to erase the good we've seen from him previously.

Scat Daddy - Aside from being the best named at this point, Daddy's got enough big class wins and placings to secure himself the probability that his name will not be too far down the list of also rans come May. Think Bluegrass Cat.

I should mention here that the second place finisher in the FOY in front of Nobiz and behind Scat Daddy was Stormello, who an unnamed family member told me will recieve his money after spotting the "uncanny coincidence" that his name ends with "O" like the previous two Derby winners.

Great Hunter - Another race, another solid showing in the Bob Lewis. If the race went off today he'd be the one carrying my cash.

Off the bandwagon:

Johannesburg Star - I really thought it was gonna be special kid. So long.

Nick Zito - Not long after sending out 5 in the Derby ol' saint Nick has pocketfull of nothing and will be watching this year from the cheap seats unless he pulls a little more magic out of his hat.

Street Sense - Never on the bandwagon per se but it seems much of the horse world sees him as leading the show right now. How, I ask, can you favor a horse yet to begin his sophomore campaign when all history flies in the face of his possible success? You don't lay a horse off (especially in his prime) for 6 months after winning the BC Juvenile and expect him to come back a winner. I suppose you have to try something new though, because all other attempts to keep the Juvy winner on his game have been fruitless. I'll be the first to tip my hat to Carl Nafzger if he pulls it off, but for now I don't see him finishing in the top 5.

Has anyone heard from The Green Monkey? Ive lost faith in any horse that gets sold for more than a million dollars. Mr. Sekiguchi, an $8 million yearling now 4 year old, just won his second career race for Baffert and it made headlines.

On a side note, I'd like to welcome former Saints receiver Joe Horn to my Atlanta Falcons. In a years time you'll hear Michael Irvin say things about being old and done but I'd like to encourage the public to remember that he's a receiver with a Falcon on his helmet and therefore incapable of mediocrity. Good luck anyways...