We Made It

It's Derby Day!

A couple quick observations from yesterday:

Congrats to Rags to Riches for an impressive Kentucky Oaks win. Cotton Blossom, we'll get em next time.

Is there anyone better at the fillies game than Heligbrodt and Steve Asmussen? I dont care what horse the jockey is sitting on, if I see those silks parading around the paddock I'm betting her.

Nice win D Wayne, how long has it been since you've been allowed inside of that winner's circle?

You can't not love Hammerin Hank's coverage. He's like my grandfather with a betting angle he wants to share with me, but get comfortable, because its going to take him a couple minutes to get it out.

I know a lot of people don't like his sarcasm but I think Kenny Mayne is a great stepping stone for the casual viewer into the sport. Dont put him on TVG but I'd watch any sport he covered on ESPN. One of yesterday's highlights was hearing him push Great Hunter all afternoon (How bout that 20?) and then watching his reaction when Paul Reddam said Liquidity was the better of his two.

My superfecta for the big day:

1. Nobiz Like Shobiz

2. Hard Spun

3. Scat Daddy

4. Circular Quay

I dont think Curlin is going to like the major class jump or running in traffic and I dont think Street Sense is going to fire when Calvin asks him.

May your Derby day be one for the scrapbook and may all your trifectas be live at the top of the stretch.

"Oh the rain falls sporadically on my new Georgia home!"

Stop the handicapping!

We have a winner...according to O.J. anyway

God help that horse if he loses

Anybody seen Lawyer Ron lately?

Your 133rd Kentucky Derby

My father should have always said that it takes a wise man to tip his hat to his superiors rather than try to beat them. I'm sure he did at some point. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. I can't beat the Crafty Veteran so I'll meekly tip my hat and congratulate him on one of the more insightful handicapping posts I've ever read.

Anywho. Here's the field from the rail out as I see it.

Sedgefield: Never before raced on dirt. Now this is a hell of a spot to test a hunch. It's like bringing a horse who cant swim to the Olympics to play water polo.

Curlin: I'm not sure whether or not I wish I was making this up. Named for a freed slave who fought for the, thats right, Confederacy during the Civil War. What I'd give to be a fly on the wall at that family reunion. The horse can fly, or at least when running alone which he's done for his entire career of 3 races. I dont think he can do it this weekend but he's the morning line favorite and there's a reason I'm not a professional gambler.

Zanjero: Run 3 times this year, finished 3rd 3 times this year, a couple of times backing up to do it. I dont think he has 3rd in him on Saturday but his owner gets a rental car so whatever works.

Storm In May: He's blind in one eye! His jockey's too tall, his trainer's too old, and I'm too old to know the difference! He's a grey horse so my mom will bet him...which will balance out 99 people who dont come race time.

Imawildandcrazyguy: Imnotgoingtobetthishorse Youcanifyouwanttoo Imnotgoingtostopyou

Cowtown Cat: The closest to the rail of Pletcher's 5. Won the Illinois Derby and the Gotham. More Cowtown than Cat, this is his trip to the big city.

Street Sense: Never run out of the money including a scorching Breeder's Cup Juvenile win. Should be the favorite going in.

Hard Spun: Had the fastest Pre-Derby work since 1979 going 5 furlongs in 57 3/5. Maybe he's cooked, maybe he's hitting the prime of his life. We shall see, but for now I think he likes the track.

Liquidity: Won his maiden and hasnt felt the need to get back in the winner's cirlce in the next 6 races, having been beaten by 7 different Derby horses in the mean time.

Teuflesberg: Cute that he's here. Shouldnt be a factor. I'm jumping out the window if he's a factor.

Bwana Bull: I Bwana see Chelokee in the Derby but we dont all get what we bwant.

Nobiz Like Shobiz: If I had to pick a favorite, and I do, this might be him. Consistently in the picture, consistently the man.

Sam P. : No T. The least likely of the Pletcher 5, I'm not sure Pletcher even knows this one is here. Great picture on the Superfecta Blog concerning Pletcher's horses.

Scat Dadddy: Have heard him referred to twice in the last two days as Scar Daddy. Maybe someone should look into the name. Got to see him win the Florida Derby in fairly convincing fashion. He'll round out my trifecta.

Tiago: As hard as it has been for me to block out the 2005 Derby, the horse racing gods have deemed to screw me over again with another sub par boring horse. But at least he won a race this time. I'm going to get Auburn John to bet on this one.

Circular Quay: Won the Louisiana Derby and was kind enough to slow down for Slew's Tizzy fallen jockey to lose the Risen Star. Other than that he's been spectacular and should be a factor when all is said and done.

Stormello: No relation to Thunderello as far as I know. I expect him off the pace early and about 12 back at the end. My Dad sees him in the winners circle and I've vowed to frame the $20 win ticket he had on him in the Florida Derby if he does.

Any Given Saturday: I dont really know what to say except he loses spectacularly. He's good, no graded stakes wins but always in the picture. Another of Pletcher's, one he might possibly be able to pick out of a lineup.

Dominican: Won a weird race in the Blue Grass. I dont really know what else to say. Not one of my top 10 but not really just filling up space either. Has a reason to be here but doesnt have a shot all at the same time.

Great Hunter: I dont know that I've ever liked a horse so much that I knew so little about. Maybe Candy Ride. Great Hunter has been my back up plan behind Nobiz since the beginning, quietly earning a spot in the field. Might have snuck in and won but the 20 post is a little tough to start from.

I'm no Crafty Veteran but that's the field as I see it.

The Evolution of a Race

Much debate transpires these days about changes in the sport, changes on the horizon, and the role that tradition should play in making these evaluations. Much of it centers around the Derby and the triple crown as a whole. Should the distances change? Should the length between races change? Do we dare run it over Polytrack? My guess is that at some point two of the three will change.

When Sir Barton won the triple crown in 1919 he didnt know it. He won three races and when the triple crown was named a few years later they went back through the books and figured out Sir Barton had already won it. (So says "Jewels of the Triple Crown", buy it, its awesome. Around $10 VHS at Amazon) One of the triple crown winners in the 1930s won the Preakness a few days before he won the Derby. Some of the triple crown winners won races in between, some years each jewel was only a couple of days apart. Things change. I'm not sure when the order of the races and length of time in between were set, but horses have won the triple crown on different layouts. We dont fault Secretariat for not running the races with a longer break in between than Gallant Fox had. Nor should we. Horses, like people and everything else, evolve over time. I think I read somewhere that the average Civil War soldier was 5'7". While I don't think the point where the 2 weeks between Derby and Preakness should be lengthened is tomorrow, or in the near future, I can accept that a day will come when it'll be necessary.

At the same time I do not think that the length of the races should ever be shortened. A horse can go a mile and a half, they could 100 years ago, and they will be able to 100 years from now. Might it be faster or slower? Absolutely. But if you base your stable on speed, dont complain when your horses have trouble getting the distance. If a basketball coach spends all his time teaching his players how to hit a layup, he shouldnt be surprised when they cant hit a jump shot. You dont ask the league to move the free throw line closer, you teach your team to shoot. The same goes for a trainer who doesnt think his horse should have to be asked to run a mile and a half. If I cant hit a 98 mph fastball I dont ask the pitcher to slow it down, I find another job. If I weigh 130 pounds I dont ask for the jockey weight limit to be raised, I find another career. Regulations and rules shouldnt be bent to allow any and all to compete.

As for polytrack, I think it will one day become a reality even at Churchill Downs. It would be a lot easier for it to start at one of the other two tracks (say, Pimlico) to lighten the blow to the die hards, but I think it's inevitable. I'm fine with it. If it keeps a disaster such as happened at Pimlico last year from happening again I think it would be a huge boost for the sport, ecspecially the portion of it that watches 4 days a year.

As for violation of tradion, how many people would like to see Hialeah run the Fountain of Youth and Flamingo Stakes next year? I'd ask that same crowd who they like in the Pimlico Special this year. Who's running tomorrow in Detroit? At Ak-sar-ben? Tradition is unfortunately violated much more savagely each year in the sport then in changing the surface of a triple crown race. All the same, go back and ask someone 30 years ago who they like in the Breeder's Cup Classic or how they like the paddock at Lonestar or how it feels to win a $6 million dollar race or how many races they got to watch in their own home today or how nice it is for a race to be a click away. Things change, not always good, but certainly not all bad, and the sport needs to be flexible, when the appropraite time comes (which might not be today), to embrace the changes and go forward for the health of the sport.

Welcome to the Party

If there ever was a week when I wish God would say, "I'm going to take nap...take over," this is it.

I'd like to start by first welcoming you to the party. If you think this is presumptious of me please take note of the opening sentence.

First off, we've gotten anouncements from a couple who won't be able to make it come Saturday. Xchanger evidently did not find a buyer in time so he'll take a time out and reload for another classic. Also exiting stage left is Cobalt Blue, one of three trained by Doug O'Neill who was badly beaten in the Illinois Derby. Blue is owned by Merv Griffin, a man as plagued by bad Derby luck as he is fortunate in creating entertaining day time television game shows. I've never seen an owner so thrilled to be headed to Louisville after Cobalt Blue won a big stakes race earlier in the year in California. The man sang my "My Old kentucky Home" on national television while Jeanine Edwards looked on unsure of whether to throw it back to the studio or sing harmony. "I'll take Businesses in the Right Place at the Right Time for $1000 Alex. Answer: This company saw a huge surge in profits after Merv Griffin learned Cobalt Blue would not run in the Kentucky Derby. Beep beep. David? What is Ben & Jerry's? Right you are!" Griffin also owned the ill fated Stevie Wonderboy who was all but handed the roses before falling to injury. The sport needs more Merv Griffins, he brings a shot of enthusiasm we dont see often enough.

So who takes their place? The first in is Teuflesberg, 4th in the Blue Grass, 3rd in the Rebel, 2nd in horses I wish they'd rename. The second entrant is I'mawildandcrazyguy. If you don't know anything about this horse, please look him up and let me know because I dont either. I'm fairly certain he was mediocre on the west coast and has a goofy name. (This is where you need to be for the hard hitting analysis you cant find anywhere else.) So that's it. Looks like we have our 20. Only problem is we have no speed so the pace should be slow. I'm curious to see whether Churchill tightens up the track a little bit to allow a quicker pace. You'll know early in the afternoon when allowance runners start setting track records. It should also be noted the D Wayne wont be sending a horse this year. Lukas' horses are a bit like the guy who always comes into criminal law hung over. I'm annoyed that he's on the same playing field as me but at least I know I can beat him.

Derby party prep events are in full swing with a spreadsheet of tasks laid out before me indiciating which days I should do which things. Yesterday I cleaned the stairs. Today I went to Kroger to check on the mint leaves. No, not buy the leaves, I just wanted to say hello and let them know I'd be back for them in a couple days. Still have to clean the place up, repaint the flamingos in the front yard, change the blocks under the T-Bird, grab the drinks and we're good to go. Looking forward to seeing those in attendance in their Sunday finery.

Special thanks to the goading of the Crafty Veteran and Old School Nasty for making me realize there are more important things than studying for finals. I'd like to take this opportuninty to remind Old School that this year's party will require another CD with another, slightly creepier, version of Talk Dirty To Me, dubbed over like a 40 year old roller skating rink announcer inserting a kid's name into the zany happy birthday song.

For a much better analysis of the weekend's events check out Patrick's blog over at Pulling Hair (the link is on the right) and also the thoroughbred bloggers he has links to on the right side of his page. I dont think any of these horseplayers will rule out a horse on name bias alone.

More to follow soon, let me know if you see something I've missed.